Write-Up 3

Jun 21, 2025

‹ Write-Up 2

Paul Skenes Is Striking Out Fewer Batters. Somehow, He’s More Dominant Than Ever.

Paul Skenes entered the majors with a clear identity: high-octane fastball, a splitter from hell, and strikeout numbers that matched the hype. But something odd has happened in 2025.

His strikeout rate is down. And it’s come down steadily and consistently. From 8.6% of pitches resulting in strikeouts last September to just 7.1% in June. Over the course of this season, he’s sitting closer to 10 K/9 than the 12–13 K/9 range many expected.

So what gives?

Usually, when a flamethrower starts striking out fewer guys, it means bad things are coming. But not for Skenes. His ERA has gone down, his WHIP is under 0.90, and opponents are struggling to make any kind of meaningful contact.

This isn't a step back. It's a transformation.

The Strikeout Dip Is Real

In September 2024, Skenes struck out nearly 8.6% of batters he faced. Yes, elite. That number fell to 7.0% by June 2025. So far this season, he’s averaging around 10.6 K/9, down from the 12.0+ projections.

You'd expect a red flag.

But his ERA has dropped from 1.96 to 1.85, and his WHIP sits at 0.84. Yes, elite by any standard. He’s giving up fewer hits, walking basically nobody, and seems completely unfazed by the dip in Ks.

So… is this a conscious shift?

Pitch Mix Evolution: He’s Using Everything

If Skenes is less overpowering, it’s not because he’s throwing softer, his fastball still averages 98+. But he’s clearly mixing more.

Compared to last spring, his fastball usage is down 3–5%, and he’s increased the use of:

Sweeper (from 10% → 19%)
Changeup (steady around 9–11%)
Sinker, which barely existed in 2024, is now at 12%

He’s gone from "power pitcher with a splitter" to a true five-pitch arm, where sequencing, deception, and command carry just as much weight as raw gas.

And it’s working.

The Contact Profile: Soft. Weak. Grounded.

Here’s where Skenes separates himself from just about any 23-year-old in baseball.

Barrel rate in 2025 is below 1% most months
Ground ball rate has ticked up from 14–17% to nearly 22% in June
Average exit velo? Holding below 82 mph, even the third time through the order
Hard-hit rate is up slightly in May/June, but he’s still keeping the ball on the ground

There’s almost no loud contact. And when guys do make contact, it’s often early in the count, weak, and into the shift.

First-Pitch Strikes + Putaway Pitch Efficiency

The easiest way to avoid long at-bats? Get ahead.

Skenes struggled with first-pitch strikes in late 2024 (dropping to 36% in August). But in 2025, he’s corrected that — sitting around 50–52% the last few months. That gives him margin for error. He doesn’t need to waste pitches trying to K everyone.

And when he does want to finish an at-bat?

Changeup putaway rate: 27%
Splitter: 24%
Curveball: 25%

All elite. His fastball, at just 21%, has become more of a setup tool than a closer.

What About the Hitters?

One theory: hitters are making a conscious adjustment. Skenes’ fastball is so hard, and so flat, that hitters may be hunting it early or avoiding two-strike counts entirely.

His third-time-through numbers show a small drop in strikeout rate (from 8.4% → 5.9%), but average exit velo barely budges. So he’s not fading. He’s just not chasing punchouts.

Maybe hitters know they can't win long battles, so they’re swinging earlier, trying to poke contact. And Skenes is letting them. That’s what makes this version of him so dangerous. He’s not reliant on blowing hitters away. He’s inviting the swing… and inducing weak contact.

The Big Question

So is this just who he is now? A contact-suppressing, command-first ace?

Or is this just the prelude to something even nastier, the part where he gains full control of his five-pitch arsenal, and starts dialing up the K’s on demand?

Either way, what we’re watching is rare: a young ace who arrived as a power arm, and in real time, is evolving into a full-fledged, efficient, inning-eating ace.

Write-Up 3

Paul Skenes Is Striking Out Fewer Batters. Somehow, He’s More Dominant Than Ever.

Paul Skenes entered the majors with a clear identity: high-octane fastball, a splitter from hell, and strikeout numbers that matched the hype. But something odd has happened in 2025.

His strikeout rate is down. And it’s come down steadily and consistently. From 8.6% of pitches resulting in strikeouts last September to just 7.1% in June. Over the course of this season, he’s sitting closer to 10 K/9 than the 12–13 K/9 range many expected.

So what gives?

Usually, when a flamethrower starts striking out fewer guys, it means bad things are coming. But not for Skenes. His ERA has gone down, his WHIP is under 0.90, and opponents are struggling to make any kind of meaningful contact.

This isn't a step back. It's a transformation.

The Strikeout Dip Is Real

In September 2024, Skenes struck out nearly 8.6% of batters he faced. Yes, elite. That number fell to 7.0% by June 2025. So far this season, he’s averaging around 10.6 K/9, down from the 12.0+ projections.

You'd expect a red flag.

But his ERA has dropped from 1.96 to 1.85, and his WHIP sits at 0.84. Yes, elite by any standard. He’s giving up fewer hits, walking basically nobody, and seems completely unfazed by the dip in Ks.

So… is this a conscious shift?

Pitch Mix Evolution: He’s Using Everything

If Skenes is less overpowering, it’s not because he’s throwing softer, his fastball still averages 98+. But he’s clearly mixing more.

Compared to last spring, his fastball usage is down 3–5%, and he’s increased the use of:

Sweeper (from 10% → 19%)

Changeup (steady around 9–11%)

Sinker, which barely existed in 2024, is now at 12%

He’s gone from "power pitcher with a splitter" to a true five-pitch arm, where sequencing, deception, and command carry just as much weight as raw gas.

And it’s working.

The Contact Profile: Soft. Weak. Grounded.

Here’s where Skenes separates himself from just about any 23-year-old in baseball.

Barrel rate in 2025 is below 1% most months

Ground ball rate has ticked up from 14–17% to nearly 22% in June

Average exit velo? Holding below 82 mph, even the third time through the order

Hard-hit rate is up slightly in May/June, but he’s still keeping the ball on the ground

There’s almost no loud contact. And when guys do make contact, it’s often early in the count, weak, and into the shift.

First-Pitch Strikes + Putaway Pitch Efficiency

The easiest way to avoid long at-bats? Get ahead.

Skenes struggled with first-pitch strikes in late 2024 (dropping to 36% in August). But in 2025, he’s corrected that — sitting around 50–52% the last few months. That gives him margin for error. He doesn’t need to waste pitches trying to K everyone.

And when he does want to finish an at-bat?

Changeup putaway rate: 27%

Splitter: 24%

Curveball: 25%

All elite. His fastball, at just 21%, has become more of a setup tool than a closer.

What About the Hitters?

One theory: hitters are making a conscious adjustment. Skenes’ fastball is so hard, and so flat, that hitters may be hunting it early or avoiding two-strike counts entirely.

His third-time-through numbers show a small drop in strikeout rate (from 8.4% → 5.9%), but average exit velo barely budges. So he’s not fading. He’s just not chasing punchouts.

Maybe hitters know they can't win long battles, so they’re swinging earlier, trying to poke contact. And Skenes is letting them. That’s what makes this version of him so dangerous. He’s not reliant on blowing hitters away. He’s inviting the swing… and inducing weak contact.

The Big Question

So is this just who he is now? A contact-suppressing, command-first ace?

Or is this just the prelude to something even nastier, the part where he gains full control of his five-pitch arsenal, and starts dialing up the K’s on demand?

Either way, what we’re watching is rare: a young ace who arrived as a power arm, and in real time, is evolving into a full-fledged, efficient, inning-eating ace.